With Greece completing the PSI bond swap with over 95% participation from debt holders, it looks like the Greek drama that has preoccupied financial markets over recent months is finally coming to a conclusion.

After the second LTRO in February, that provided regional lenders with an additional €1tn, the CDS payouts now triggered by ISDA shouldn’t be a significant game-changer.

With CFD trading investors shifting their focus away from the Greek saga, the markets are likely to turn their attention to the core fundamental issues shaping the outlook for Europe.

The outlook for economic growth is bleak and as EU governments continue to be in deficit-cutting mode, any help to alleviate the downturn is likely to come in the form of monetary policy, which points to additional ECB easing.

The fundamental outlook for the UK doesn’t seem any better either, with the ongoing weakness in the labour market paired with the slowdown in global trade fuelling fears of a double-dip recession.

The Bank of England refrained from releasing a policy statement on Thursday after the central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintained its asset purchase programme at £325bn.

Looking ahead, this is a quiet week in the way of key economic data and CFDs news.

Traders will be closely eyeing the FOMC interest rate decision and the accompanying monetary policy statement on today.

The focus will be on the central bank’s assessment of the economy as data continues to top estimates following Friday’s stronger than expected NFP report.

The main risk events for investors to watch out for this week will be any European commentary from the Eurogroup and any subtle signals from across the Atlantic on a third round of quantitative easing.

Of equal interest will be any signs of worry from the Middle-East, as energy markets remain fixated on the mounting geopolitical tension between Iran, Israel and the West.

CFD Trading, Margined Forex and Spread Trading carry a high level of risk, you can lose more than your initial deposit. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose and if necessary seek independent advice.

The information provided in the above article should not be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the time the information was produced.

Article by InterTrader which is a trading name of London Capital Group which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Another expectation beating employment report from the US on Friday has the CFD trading markets in a buoyant mood this morning.

The headline number was 227K jobs created in February against a forecast of 210K, with strong upward revisions to both December and January numbers.

This marks the third straight month of strong jobs growth with gains spread across different sectors of the economy. One negative was that construction jobs showed flat growth for the first time in a couple of months.

Interestingly we have again seen the dollar strengthen on the back of positive US developments, which flies in the face of the risk-on, risk-off paradigm that has dominated FX CFD trading in the US Dollar over the last few years.

Commodity currencies initially surged on the news but have cooled off as we start the week.

Looking ahead this week we have several big ticket releases to look forward to. Tomorrow German economic sentiment is followed by US advanced retail sales and the Fed interest rate decision.

The market expects a strong increase in retail sales from last month and Friday’s employment report is fuelling further optimism of a stellar number. The risk therefore is to the downside in terms of the Dollar if we get a disappointing figure.

The Fed meeting should be a non-event, but talk about sterilized QE over recent days by the Fed Chairman will keep market interest high.

Eurozone inflation figures plus the ECB monthly report (useful for tracking ECB borrowing by the banks) are due later this week.

Also worth watching is the Swiss Interest rate decision, not for interest rates directly but for chatter over an increase in the Swiss Franc peg which, if undertaken, would cause significant movements across the FX markets.

 
CFDs, margined forex and financial spread trading are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your fund. It is possible to lose more than your initial capital outlay with these products and they may not be suitable for all investors, do ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, seek independent financial advice if necessary.

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Today’s Greece bond swap outcome didn’t have a particularly negative or positive effect on the markets today.

With some uncertainty surrounding the CDS insurance question, investors have remained on the side-lines with expectations that a market pressure point could well have been put to one side in the short-term.

The one remaining uncertainty remains with respect to whether ISDA will declare a default event and trigger the CDS insurance. Ratings agency Fitch is in no doubt putting Greece into “selective default”.

The main catalyst sending CFD trading markets higher has been the US employment data that saw the number of jobs added, exceed expectations. February payrolls added 227k, while the January number was also revised higher from 243k to 284k.

Despite the better data, it is the more defensive minded sectors that have been the better performers today, with mining stocks lagging behind after Chinese data came in slightly below expectations.

Out-performers include temporary provider Aggreko continues to hit record highs after the company reported that profits for 2011 increased by 6% to £327m.

Silver miner Fresnillo has been the laggard of the day after the company was downgraded by Deutsche Bank from “buy” to “hold”.

US markets opened higher today after a strong February jobs report saw 227k jobs added while the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 8.3%.

The U6 broader unemployment rate declined from 15.1% to 14.9%. Upside looks likely to be tempered near the recent highs despite these better numbers given that we’ve seen some impressive gains over the past few weeks.

Carnival Cruise Lines shares are in the spotlight today as investors discover the initial costs associated with the Costa Concordia sinking in Italy. The company posted a loss of $139m and downgraded their outlook as a result.

The single currency has slid back sharply today despite the successful outcome of the PSI, probably a case of “buy the rumour sell the fact”.

To be fair the economic data we’ve seen out of Europe today hasn’t been that supportive with Italian, French and Greece economic data continuing to disappoint.

Missing industrial production data missing on both French and Italian measures added to this, while Greece’s growth numbers for 2011 were revised down again to -7.5%.

In FX CFD trading, the pound has also taken a bit of a hit after industrial production for January missed by some way coming in at -0.4%, well below expectations of a gain of 0.3%.

The poor numbers have certainly raised eyebrows given that PMI data across the same sector has been broadly positive for both January and February.

Gold prices have slid back sharply on the positive US jobs numbers. However, they have since bounced back after Fitch put Greece into restricted default.

US crude prices have risen quite sharply on the back of today’s positive jobs report, while Brent prices have found upside progress slightly more difficult likely weighed down by the disappointing European data.

Copper prices despite the disappointing Chinese data have remained fairly buoyant probably on an expectation that we could well see a cut in Chinese Reserve Requirements this weekend, given the sharp fall back in Chinese CPI.

CFDs, spread trading and FX are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital as prices may move rapidly against you. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment and you may be required to make further payments. These products may not be suitable for all customers therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice.

CFDs trading update from Michael Hewson, Market Analyst, CMC Markets.

This content should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or recommendation or offer to sell any security or other financial instrument.

Neither CFDs-Online.com nor any contributing company or individual accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above or for the correctness or accuracy of the information provided.

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EU officials are desperately trying to convince private holders of Greek bonds to accept a crucial debt swap deal ahead of today’s deadline.

In order for Greece to receive a second bailout, it will need at least two thirds of bondholders to take a 53.5% cut in the value of their holdings and the deal is considered essential in Greece’s attempt to avoid a default.

According to the Institute of Finance yesterday, just under 40% of the bond holders had agreed to the new deal leading to a nervy countdown at 8pm GMT deadline later today.

If the total number of bond holders reach the required 66% (approx €150bn) agree to the swap, the government can force the other bond holders to take the haircut too.

Remarkably the Euro remains relatively resilient in the face a Greek default up slightly against the Greenback reaching 1.3217.

Back to the UK and Quantitative Easing has knocked £90bn off Pension Funds according to National Association of Pension Funds (NAPF).

The news came from two recent studies and blamed lower bond yields and consequently pushing final salary pensions further into the red. Joanne Segars, Head of the NAPF, said: “Businesses running final-salary pensions are being clouted by QE.”

“Deficits that were already big now look even bigger because of its artificial distortions.

“Firms are legally obliged to fill the deficits, and that diverts money away from jobs and investment, and will lead to further closures of final salary pensions in the private sector,” she explained.

Finally, today we have interest rate decisions in the UK and Europe both expecting no change and consequently little impact in the FX CFD trading markets.

Reduced revisions to ECB growth forecasts will however, could underpin a more negative tone in this afternoons press conference.

 
CFDs, margined forex and financial spread trading are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your fund. It is possible to lose more than your initial capital outlay with these products and they may not be suitable for all investors, do ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, seek independent financial advice if necessary.

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Greek Politicians are applying increasing amounts of pressure to bond holders in a last ditch attempt to obtain the necessary 75% to agree to the terms of the looming bond swap tomorrow.

The Hellenic Republic is threatening to invoke Collective Action Clauses (CACs), agreed by Greek politicians last month, to force through the deal which if used would almost certainly constitute the first sovereign default in Eurozone history.

Any default would trigger credit default swaps on the bonds, a type of insurance that could lead to be very lucrative to those investors refusing to participate in the deal but might also lead to renewed uncertainty in the market.

CDS contracts are traded over the counter and are fairly opaque in nature and it is unclear exactly how many contracts might be triggered and who might be on the other (losing) side of the bet.

The uncertainty is naturally translating into risk-off, with shares CFD trading markets declining along with the risk-on currencies such as the euro and Sterling.

The US is once again the big winner, rising across the board over the last few days on a run that can be expected to continue until full details of the bond swap are announced.

It is fortunate given the levels of volatility in the CFD trading markets that both the ECB and Bank of England are unlikely to make any changes to monetary policy at their respective meetings this week.

In Europe interest rates will stay at 1%. Mario Draghi will hopefully talk in detail about the success of the LTRO but is unlikely to be drawn to talk about Greece, much to the markets disappointment.

The Bank of England is also likely to keep monetary policy on hold; another boost to the asset purchase scheme would be seen as the Bank panicking and would probably do more harm than good at this stage.

Rounding off a busy end of the week, the most widely watched of the major data, non-farm payrolls, is released.

The recent trend in US employment has been positive, not only has the headline number increased strongly, once you delve into the data the increases are from job creation rather than workers leaving the labour pool for example.

The markets are optimistic and therefore any disappointment over the number will be amplified in terms of movement in the dollar.

 
CFDs, margined forex and financial spread trading are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your fund. It is possible to lose more than your initial capital outlay with these products and they may not be suitable for all investors, do ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, seek independent financial advice if necessary.

Content by CurrenciesDirect.com. This content should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or recommendation or offer to sell any security or other financial instrument.

Greece has a potentially difficult week ahead as a group of private investors consider the terms and conditions of an arrangement intended to cut €107bn from the Greek’s €340bn debt burden.

The whole deal hinges on whether the creditors are willing to take a hit of 75% on their holdings in return for a combination of long-term Greek bonds and debt issued from the bailout fund.

Due to terms of the second bailout, if over a third of the bond holders reject the deal the overall bailout could collapse as per terms put through Government last week.

The reaction from the rest of Europe specifically Austria is now sceptical about the overall viability of the package. Chancellor Werner Faymann said yesterday that the second bailout is not the end of the matter.

“I would not trust anyone who says that for Greece it’s enough,” Faymann told Austrian media.

“For Greece it depends on whether they can stick to these measures over several elections.” Greece will begin voting at the end of this month.

In the interim, Greek officials are required to gain the backing of a minimum of 2/3 of its private holders by Friday to employ the debt swap and comply with the requirement terms of its second bailout.

Worst case scenario, Greece could run out of funds in less than a fortnight and could prompt an unruly and possibly catastrophic default.

As you would expect, the news is weighing heavily on the euro right now and has seen EUR/USD slip to 1.3191 from 1.3440 at the same point last week. Sterling is approaching the key psychological figure of 1.20 at 1.1981 against the single European currency.

CFD trading markets will keep a close eye on developments in the med and this will provide the impetus for sentiment this week.

Elsewhere the week is largely dominated by Central Bank interest rate decisions with announcements in Australia, New Zealand UK, Europe and Canada all expecting no change in the overall rate.

Any variance from these expected figures, with any turbulence from Greece and Friday afternoons US Non-farm payroll data could lead to a volatile week for the markets.

 
CFDs, margined forex and financial spread trading are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your fund. It is possible to lose more than your initial capital outlay with these products and they may not be suitable for all investors, do ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, seek independent financial advice if necessary.

Content by CurrenciesDirect.com. This content should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or recommendation or offer to sell any security or other financial instrument.

After a prolonged period of modest activity, the second ECB LTRO and the Fed Chair’s outlook for the US economy caused remarkable volatility in the CFD trading markets last week.

Widespread optimism held global equities and risk correlated assets to high levels.

Despite the good deal of positives that come from the LTRO, the event itself reflects an economy that is still in trouble. Moreover, it is doubtful that the ECB operation is addressing the underlying structural issues in the banking sector, leaving risk correlated assets further exposed to structural problems in the Euro region.

Moving on to Bernanke’s economic assessment, this was anything but positive for risk assets.

Investors, however, seem to be disregarding the bad shape of the global economy with the ultra accommodative policy being mainly seen as an opportunity to fund equity investments.

Following Bernanke’s announcement, it should also be noted that with the US economy showing signs of recovery, the possibility of rates going up sooner than widely expected is not an unrealistic one.

That said, it remains to be seen how much longer before the bearish outlook materializes.

This week is highlighted by the US Non-Farm Payrolls announcement released on Friday 9th March.

In January the US economy created jobs at the best pace since late 2011 with the NFP headline figure jumping 243K, exceeding expectations for a gain of 150K and indicating fourth quarter’s growth carried into 2012.

Across the pond, confidence has really bounced strongly and so expectations are for a further rise. Domestic data releases from the UK come in the form of industrial production and merchandise trade published on Friday.

Investors will be also watching the Bank of England announcement on its monetary policy on Thursday 8th.

CFD Trading, Margined Forex and Spread Trading carry a high level of risk, you can lose more than your initial deposit. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose and if necessary seek independent advice.

The information provided in the above article should not be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the time the information was produced.

Article by InterTrader which is a trading name of London Capital Group which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Events for the week commencing 5 March 2012:

Monday
Currently under investigation by the International Development Committee in respect of allegedly abusing tax loopholes in certain countries, Glencore International Plc will announce full year results on Monday.

No real surprises are expected given that we saw a pre-release earlier this month. Further details surrounding Glencore’s merger with Xstrata – which is anything but a done deal at the moment with respect to both regulation and the unhappy Xstrata shareholders – will be where trader focus lies.

Elsewhere in CFD trading, BP Plc has struggled to gain a real foothold above the 500p level since its share price declined from the highs of 648p seen last in April 2010.

Monday evening will see the beginning of BP’s trial in respect to its liability for the Gulf of Mexico explosion and subsequent oil spill. With Chief Executive Bob Dudley stating that they are ‘ready to fight’…. volatility in the share price is a foregone conclusion.

Tuesday
Fourth Quarter GDP for Europe will be released.
Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision.

Having announced a new Chief Financial officer in Andrew Bracey, Michael Page International will release FY earnings. Having reported a continued slowdown in profit, down to the weak financial recruitment market, the company is expecting to make up the difference in the emerging markets.

Wednesday
The company now trading well in excess of $500 a share, Apple will unveil its iPad 3 today. With an abundance of rumours as to what to expect from the new product, the rhetoric from the company itself is that “it’s something you have to see. And touch”.

It is worth noting, UK chip maker Arm Holdings generally sees decent price action on the basis of Apple publicity.

Insurance group, Admiral Plc will report FY earnings today following a tough year in 2011, falling from a peak of 17 last year to just over £11 now, the company seems to building on gains since the lows of last December. Expectations are for a pre-tax profit of £295m, up 11% YOY, with an EPS of 81p.

Grafton Group has rebounded sharply since the beginning of the year up 40% year to date, the group continues to generate cash and lower net debt so trading profit is expected to be in the €52-55m range and an EPS of 15.3c.

Thursday
BoE and ECB rate decision releases are due to be announced.

Wm Morrisons Supermarkets saw a small drop in its market share this year so far from 12.3% to 12.2%, and has recently cancelled 1.17 million ordinary shares via a buy back. The 300p mark has been elusive so far this year.

BRC sales were fairly robust as were January’s retail sales – this could provide a boost to the retail sector.

Friday
Non Farm Payrolls will be watched closely at 1.30pm.

Power Generation company, Aggreko Plc has been the target of a series of broker downgrades in recent months following a strong Q3. With underlying sales growth impressive, this company could be subjected to a bout of profit taking.

CFDs, spread trading and FX are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital as prices may move rapidly against you. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment and you may be required to make further payments. These products may not be suitable for all customers therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice.

CFDs trading update from Michael Hewson, Market Analyst, CMC Markets.

This content should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or recommendation or offer to sell any security or other financial instrument.

Neither CFDs-Online.com nor any contributing company or individual accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above or for the correctness or accuracy of the information provided.

CMC Markets UK Plc which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority.

On 13th January the GBP reached a low of 1.52321 against the USD. Since then it has strengthened significantly and the price right now, on the morning of 29th February, is 1.59291.

While this is marginally higher than the recent maximum of 1.59274 we saw on 8th February, it is still too early to predict that we will soon seen new highs. We will have to wait for additional confirmation before that can happen.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo clearly shows that we are experiencing a short-term bull run. The green Chinkou Span line is well above the price of 26 periods ago and the current price is far above the Ichimoku cloud.

Both the red Tenkan Sen and the blue Kijun Sen lines are also above the cloud, which is more evidence of a bull run.

If the price should rise significantly above the previous maximum of 1.59274 the earlier maximum of 1.61649 we saw on 31st October last year becomes the next target.

Looking at GBP/USD charts, we can clearly see that, from a longer-term perspective, the market is far from being in a bull phase. The price will have to move much closer to the 1.7000 level before we can start talking of a bullish long-term CFD trading market.

Day traders will have to wait for at least two solid closes below the Ichimoku cloud before risking a short trade.

CFD Trading, Margined Forex and Spread Trading carry a high level of risk, you can lose more than your initial deposit. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose and if necessary seek independent advice.

The information provided in the above article should not be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the time the information was produced.

Article by InterTrader which is a trading name of London Capital Group which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

Encouraging economic developments provided CFD trading investors with buoyant markets. Despite weaker than expected US durable goods orders, a rise in US consumer confidence to its highest level since February last year provided stock markets and risk assets with an overall a boost.

It was a similar story in Europe as Italy held a successful auction of 10-year debt at a lower than expected cost at the same time as Portugal approved a third review of its bailout agenda.

However, there was some negative news, with the ECB momentarily deferring the eligibility of Greek bonds as security for its backing and the Emerald Isle calling a referendum on the European fiscal compact.

Nevertheless, expectations of a strong take up at today’s ECB second 3-year Long term refinancing operation (LTRO) should keep markets on the straight and narrow for the rest of this week.

As for the USD, given the upbeat equity market mood overnight it is no shock that the Greenback was on the slide as the EUR appears determined before today’s 3-year LTRO by the ECB.

Bernanke’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report later today will provide the Dollar some bearing but no major surprises are expected.

EUR/USD will continue to rally if we are correct about a strong €600-700 billion take up at the LTRO but it will be interesting to see if the 1.35 level can be breached.

Finally, attempts by SNB head Jordan repeating his standpoint of protecting the EUR/CHF bottom of 1.20 has been relatively ineffective.

EUR/CHF has benefited from a strong correlation with actions in interest rate differentials.

This suggests that it should rise in German yields against Swiss yields for EUR/CHF to move up. This has a strong case given the decline in Swiss economic data over recent months.

Ultimately EUR/CHF could move higher but over the short-term, it is doubtful to shift far from the 1.20 level.

 
CFDs, margined forex and financial spread trading are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your fund. It is possible to lose more than your initial capital outlay with these products and they may not be suitable for all investors, do ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, seek independent financial advice if necessary.

Content by CurrenciesDirect.com. This content should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy or recommendation or offer to sell any security or other financial instrument.